Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) as of September 2023

 The plot shows the percentage change from the previous year of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE), a measure of inflation in the United States. The data is shown from 1992 to 2023, with the latest value being 3.68% for September 2023.

The plot shows that the Core PCE has been relatively low and stable since the early 2000s, with the exception of a few spikes, such as during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The Core PCE has been above the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% since March 2021, peaking at 6.27% in February 2023.

The Core PCE is a closely watched indicator by the Federal Reserve, as it is seen as a good measure of underlying inflation. The Fed uses the Core PCE to help guide its monetary policy decisions, such as whether to raise or lower interest rates.

In the context of the current high inflation environment, the plot shows that the Core PCE has been trending downwards in recent months, but it is still above the Fed's target. This suggests that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates in an effort to bring inflation down.