Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes as of August 2023

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index (BBK Coincident Index) is a measure of the current state of the US economy. It is calculated as a weighted average of several coincident economic indicators, such as nonfarm payroll employment, industrial production, and personal income.

A negative value of the BBK Coincident Index indicates that the economy is performing below its long-term trend. A value of -0.34 suggests that the economy is currently contracting, but at a relatively mild pace.

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index (BBK Leading Index) is a measure of future economic activity. It is calculated as a weighted average of several leading economic indicators, such as new building permits, stock prices, and consumer confidence.

The BBK Leading Index is currently at 0.00, which suggests that the economy is expected to grow at a modest pace in the coming months. However, the fact that the index is at 0.00, which is its long-term average, also suggests that there is some uncertainty about the future direction of the economy.

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle Component of GDP is a measure of the cyclical component of real GDP growth. It is calculated by removing the trend component of GDP growth.

A negative value of the BBK Cycle Component of GDP indicates that the economy is in a recession. A value of -1.11 suggests that the current recession is relatively severe.

Overall, the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes suggest that the US economy is currently contracting, but at a relatively mild pace. The outlook for the coming months is uncertain, but the fact that the BBK Leading Index is at its long-term average suggests that the economy is expected to grow at a modest pace.

Here is a summary of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes 

Index	Value	Interpretation
BBK Coincident Index	-0.34	Economy is contracting below its long-term trend.
BBK Leading Index	0.00	Economy expected to grow at a modest pace in the coming months, but there is some uncertainty.
BBK Cycle Component of GDP	-1.11	Economy is in a relatively severe recession.

It is important to note that the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes are just one measure of the economy. There are other economic indicators that should also be considered when assessing the health of the economy.