The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve is a nowcasting model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. It synthesizes the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter.
The latest GDPNow estimate for the third quarter of 2023 is 4.92 percent. This is a slight increase from the previous estimate of 4.9 percent.
The following is a breakdown of the GDPNow components for the third quarter of 2023:
- Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: 3.63%
- Nowcast for Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: 9.94%
- Nowcast for Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Residential: 4.93%
- Nowcast for Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Business: 2.53%
- Nowcast for Real Exports of Goods and Services: 6.72%
- Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Change of Inventory Investment: 1.14%
- Nowcast for Real Gross Government Investment: 1.86%
- Nowcast for Real Gross Government Investment: Federal Government: 2.35%
- Nowcast for Real Imports of Goods and Services: 2.15%
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the largest component of GDP, accounting for about two-thirds of total spending. The Nowcast for Real PCE is 3.63 percent for the third quarter of 2023. This is a slight increase from the previous estimate of 3.6 percent.
Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) is another important component of GDP. It includes spending on new equipment, structures, and inventories. The Nowcast for Real GPDI is 9.94 percent for the third quarter of 2023. This is a slight increase from the previous estimate of 9.9 percent.
Net exports is the difference between exports and imports. It is a relatively small component of GDP, but it can have a significant impact on growth. The Nowcast for Real Net Exports is 4.57 percent for the third quarter of 2023. This is a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 4.6 percent.
Government spending is the other major component of GDP. It includes spending on goods and services, as well as transfer payments. The Nowcast for Real Government Spending is 1.86 percent for the third quarter of 2023. This is unchanged from the previous estimate.
Overall, the GDPNow model is projecting strong economic growth for the third quarter of 2023. However, it is important to note that this is just a nowcast, and the actual GDP growth rate could be different.
Source:https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1
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