# U.S. Housing Market Update: October 2025

**More Inventory, Cooling Prices, Modest Sales Gains — and Mortgage Rates Holding Steady in the Low-to-Mid 6% Range**

The National Association of Realtors dropped its October 2025 Existing-Home Sales report on November 20, and the story remains the same one we’ve been telling all fall: the market is steadily normalizing.

We now have the most inventory in years, price growth has slowed to the tamest pace since the pandemic, sales are posting small but consecutive gains, and — crucially — mortgage rates have stayed remarkably calm in the low-to-mid 6% zone.

Taken together, this is the most buyer-friendly environment we’ve seen since early 2022.

### October Existing-Home Sales at a Glance

| Metric                                            | Monthly Change | 3-Month MA Change | Annual Change |

|---------------------------------------------------|----------------|-------------------|---------------|

| Total Existing-Home Sales                         | +1.2%          | +0.8%             | **+1.7%**    |

| Existing Single-Family Home Sales                 | +0.8%          | +0.6%             | **+1.9%**    |

| Median Sales Price – All Existing Homes           | +0.7%          | –0.8%             | **+2.1%**    |

| Median Sales Price – Single-Family Homes          | +0.7%          | –0.9%             | **+2.2%**    |

| Existing Home Sales: Months Supply                | –2.2%          | –1.5%             | **+7.3%**    |

| Single-Family Months Supply                       | 0.0%           | –1.5%             | **+10.3%**   |

| Total Housing Inventory                           | –0.7%          | –0.7%             | **+11.0%**   |

| Single-Family Housing Inventory                   | –0.8%          | –1.0%             | **+10.9%**   |

### The Three Big Takeaways from the Sales Report

1. **Inventory is the standout performer**  

   Active listings are up ~11% year-over-year — the fastest growth in the entire report and the highest annual increase in years. Months’ supply is also climbing fast, especially for single-family homes.

2. **Price growth has cooled dramatically**  

   Annual median price gains of just ~2% are basically in line with long-run norms. Even more telling: the 3-month moving average for prices is now negative for the first time since early 2023.

3. **Sales are stabilizing**  

   Total sales rose 1.2% month-over-month (second straight gain) and are up 1.7% yoy. Volume is still ~25% below the 2021 peak, but the trend is finally pointing up.

### Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot (November 21, 2025)

| Source                          | 30-Year Fixed | vs Last Week | vs Oct Low | 2025 Avg So Far |

|---------------------------------|---------------|--------------|------------|-----------------|

| Freddie Mac (Nov 20 weekly)     | **6.26%**    | +0.02        | +0.09     | ~6.72%         |

| Mortgage News Daily (daily)     | **6.34%**| –0.02 (today)| +0.12     | —              |

| Bankrate / lender averages      | 6.11–6.24% APR| Flat        | Flat      | —              |

Rates have been essentially flat for six weeks after touching 6.17% at the end of October — the lowest since early 2023.

### Why This Combination Matters Right Now

- Rising inventory + sub-6.5% rates = actual negotiating power for buyers. Multiple-offer frenzies are becoming rare outside the hottest neighborhoods.

- The “lock-in effect” is cracking: homeowners who locked in 3–4% mortgages in 2021–2022 are starting to list because the gap to current rates feels less painful, especially with home prices still near all-time highs.

- Regional differences are huge: Florida, Texas, and much of the Midwest/South have 5–7 months of supply and flat-to-falling prices in some metros. The Northeast and West Coast remain tighter (3–4 months supply) and are still seeing modest price gains.

### 2026 Outlook

Consensus from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and most Wall Street economists:

| Period         | Expected 30-Year Rate | Expected Inventory Growth | Expected Price Growth |

|----------------|-----------------------|---------------------------|-----------------------|

| End of 2025    | 6.2–6.5%             | +8–12% yoy               | 2–3%                 |

| Mid-2026       | 5.8–6.2%             | +10–15% yoy              | 2–4%                 |

| End of 2026    | 5.7–6.0%             | Continued rebuilding     | 3–5% (or less if rates drop faster) |

Bottom line: We’re in the sweet spot of a soft landing. No crash, no new frenzy — just a gradual return to normal seasonality, more choices, and affordable financing by historical standards.

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, late 2025 / early 2026 is shaping up to be the best entry point in years. Rates aren’t going to zero, but they don’t need to — the combination of more supply and low-6% mortgages is already doing the heavy lifting on affordability.

Next updates to watch: November sales (Dec 19), FHFA house-price index (next week), and the Fed’s December meeting. Stay tuned.