📈 AI, Semiconductors, and Gold: What Nasdaq’s Latest Moves Are Telling Us

Investors love simple narratives, but markets rarely cooperate. The latest performance snapshot of key Nasdaq-related indices tells a more nuanced story: AI and semiconductors remain long-term winners, gold and silver have quietly become superstars, and rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and infrastructure are still under pressure.

Using percent changes from yesterday, last week, last month, and last year, we can see how leadership is shifting beneath the surface.

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1. One Year View: The Big Winners and Losers

If you zoom out to the last 12 months, one index absolutely dominates:

• PHLX Gold/Silver Sector: +102.27%

That’s not a typo. Precious metals miners have more than doubled over the past year, outpacing even AI and semiconductors. Behind this move are familiar drivers: inflation fears, geopolitical risk, and a persistent search for real assets.

AI and semiconductors are not exactly slacking either:

• PHLX Semiconductor (SOX): +33.33%

• Nasdaq Global AI & Big Data Index: +24.20%

• Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence Index: +22.52%

• Nasdaq Composite Total Return: +19.57%

• Nasdaq Composite Index: +18.77%

• Nasdaq 100 Index: +18.69%

These numbers confirm what headlines have been shouting all year: the AI + semiconductor complex remains a core engine of market performance.

On the weaker side:

• Nasdaq US Multi-Asset REIT Total Return Index: –2.02%

• Kelly Data Center & Tech Infrastructure Index: –0.66%

REITs and infrastructure are still struggling with higher interest rates, funding costs, and a shaky commercial real estate environment.

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2. One Month View: Leaders Losing Steam?

Over the past month, the picture gets more complicated.

Tech-heavy benchmarks still hold up well:

• Nasdaq Composite TR: +1.54%

• Nasdaq Composite Index: +1.50%

• Nasdaq 100: +1.42%

But some of the biggest long-term winners are now flashing short-term fatigue:

• PHLX Gold/Silver Sector: –10.59%

• Kelly Data Center & Tech Infrastructure Index: –10.63%

• Nasdaq CTA Artificial Intelligence Index: –4.76%

In other words:
🔹 The long-term leaders are taking a breather.
🔹 This is classic bull-market behavior — strong uptrends with sharp, sentiment-driven pullbacks.

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3. One Week View: Rotation Beneath the Surface

Over the latest 5 trading days, the tone has been mildly risk-off.

Most indices are negative for the week, but one name stands out:

• PHLX Gold/Silver Sector: +5.71% (despite the –10% month)

That pattern—down sharply over the month but rebounding hard over the week—suggests traders are buying the dip in precious metals.

On the downside:

• Kelly Data Center & Tech Infrastructure Index: –7.95%

• Nasdaq CTA AI Index: –3.03%

• PHLX Semiconductor: –1.96%

AI-related names and semiconductors are seeing consolidation after a big run, while infrastructure continues to lag.

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4. One Day View: Noise or Signal?

Daily moves are often noise, but they’re still useful for checking very short-term sentiment:

• The Nasdaq Composite TR and Composite Index were slightly positive on the day (+0.14% and +0.13%).

• AI indices and gold/silver slipped:

  • Nasdaq CTA AI Index: –0.96%

  • PHLX Gold/Silver: –0.89%

This looks like a mild de-risking session: broad indices held up, while the more volatile thematic trades (AI and metals) took a small step back.

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5. Heatmap: Seeing the Whole Picture at Once

To really see the story at a glance, the heatmap of all four horizons (daily, weekly, monthly, yearly) is invaluable. Warm colors highlight strength; cool colors highlight weakness.

What it shows clearly:

• Gold/Silver: Deep red on the 1-year row (huge outperformance), cold on the 1-month, but warming again on the 1-week.

• AI & Semiconductors: Warm on the 1-year, mixed on the 1-month and 1-week as they consolidate.

• REITs & Infrastructure: Generally cooler across time frames — confirming ongoing rate sensitivity.

• Treasury 10-Year TR Index: Weak on the monthly horizon, consistent with pressure from yields and policy uncertainty.

The heatmap turns a table of numbers into an intuitive “market weather map.”

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6. What This Means for Investors

Putting all horizons together:

1. AI and Semiconductors remain core long-term growth engines.
   Their 1-year performance is too strong to ignore, even if the short-term shows some cooling.

2. Gold and Silver are in a real bull market, not just a trade.
   A 100%+ 1-year move combined with continued interest on weekly pullbacks suggests sustained demand for hard assets.

3. REITs and Infrastructure are still in the penalty box.
   Until the rate environment stabilizes, these sectors will likely lag.

4. Short-term weakness ≠ trend reversal.
   The recent pullbacks in AI, semis, and metals look more like consolidations in a larger bull trend than the end of the story.

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7. How You Could Use These Charts in a Portfolio Context

• Trend-followers might lean into AI, semiconductors, and gold/silver on pullbacks, using the weekly and monthly charts to time entries.

• Value or mean-reversion investors might begin watching REITs and infrastructure, but the data suggests it’s still early.

• Macro-focused investors can use the divergence between gold, bonds, and rate-sensitive sectors to calibrate their view on inflation, policy, and growth.

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