The BLS employment situation report is usually summarized with a few headlines (payrolls, unemployment rate, wages). But the real “feel” of the labor market often shows up in two places that get less attention:
household-side levels and ratios (participation, employment, not-in-labor-force details)
labor-force flows (who is moving between employment, unemployment, and not in the labor force)
Part 1) Household-side indicators: headline easing, but slack may be shifting off-screen
What moved this month
Unemployment metrics improved on the month:
Unemployment level: -3.6 m/m, -0.7 (3-month MA), +8.4 y/y
Unemployment rate: -2.2 m/m, 0.0 (3-month MA), +7.3 y/y
Employment rose slightly:
Employment level: +0.1 m/m, +0.1 (3-month MA), +1.5 y/y
Employment-population ratio: +0.2 m/m, 0.0 (3-month MA), -0.3 y/y
But labor supply softened:
Civilian labor force level: -0.0 m/m, +0.1 (3-month MA), +1.8 y/y
Labor force participation rate: -0.2 m/m, -0.1 (3-month MA), -0.2 y/y
And the biggest flag in your table:
Not in labor force – want a job now: +1.1 m/m, +2.2 (3-month MA), +12.4 y/y
How to read this mix
When the unemployment rate and unemployment level fall while participation also slips, it often means the labor market is “improving” partly because fewer people are being counted as active job seekers. That does not automatically mean demand is strong.
The sharp rise in “not in labor force – want a job now” is especially important. It suggests a growing pool of people who are not counted as unemployed, but still want work. In other words, slack can build outside the headline unemployment rate.
A simple interpretation:
headline unemployment looks a bit better,
the labor force is not expanding much,
and hidden slack (people who want work but are not in the labor force) is rising quickly.
Part 2) Labor-force flows: churn is rising, and that matters
Flows tell you how people are moving between states. They often turn before the headline rate does.
The most concerning flow
Employed → Unemployed: +8.7 m/m, +1.0 (3-month MA), +8.9 y/y
That is a classic “separations are picking up” signal. Even if the unemployment rate is not jumping, a rising employed-to-unemployed flow usually means more people are losing jobs (or at least leaving employment into unemployment).
Hiring out of unemployment is not keeping up on trend
Unemployed → Employed: +2.0 m/m, -3.1 (3-month MA), -7.4 y/y
This is one of the most important lines in your flow table. The month-to-month number is positive, but the trend is not. A negative 3-month average and negative y/y suggest the labor market is getting less effective at absorbing the unemployed back into jobs.
In-and-out of the labor force is accelerating
Not in labor force → Employed: +2.9 m/m, +2.8 (3-month MA), +14.6 y/y
Employed → Not in labor force: +1.4 m/m, 0.0 (3-month MA), +10.7 y/y
Not in labor force → Unemployed: +0.6 m/m, +4.1 (3-month MA), +11.0 y/y
Unemployed → Not in labor force: +1.4 m/m, +0.6 (3-month MA), +5.0 y/y
This tells a nuanced story:
More people are entering employment from outside the labor force (a positive),
but more people are also leaving employment into not-in-labor-force (a negative),
and entries from not-in-labor-force into unemployment are rising, which can indicate job search is increasing but not immediately resulting in hiring.
Job-to-job looks quiet
Employed → Employed (job-to-job): +0.1 m/m, +0.0 (3-month MA), +0.9 y/y
In strong labor markets, job-to-job churn tends to be higher (workers feel confident switching). A low, steady job-to-job flow fits a cooling environment.
Putting it together: why the headline can look fine while the market feels weaker
If you combine both sets of signals:
unemployment is down on the month
participation is down on the month
“want a job now” is rising fast
employed-to-unemployed transitions jumped
unemployed-to-employed transitions look weaker on trend
…you get a picture of a labor market where pressure is building, but it is not being fully captured by the headline unemployment rate.
This is exactly how “quiet weakening” can happen:
fewer people officially in the labor force,
more people who want work but sit outside the unemployment definition,
and higher churn into unemployment alongside slower re-absorption.
What I would watch next month
If you want to confirm (or reject) the “hidden slack + rising churn” story, these are the highest-signal follow-ups:
Does employed → unemployed stay elevated, or does it revert?
Does unemployed → employed recover in the 3-month average?
Does “not in labor force – want a job now” keep rising y/y?
Does participation stabilize, or keep drifting lower?
Do hours worked and wage momentum cool (often the next shoe to drop)?
Bottom line
Your tables suggest a labor market that is not breaking, but is subtly deteriorating in quality:
The headline may look calmer in the short run,
yet the underlying flows show more people falling from employment into unemployment,
while the pipeline from unemployment back into jobs looks weaker on trend,
and slack outside the official unemployment definition is rising quickly.
If you want, paste the top-line payroll/wage/revisions block from today’s release (or your percent-change table for payrolls by sector), and I’ll integrate it into this blog so it reads as one cohesive “full report” narrative with a tighter conclusion and a short market/policy implications section.
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