The Housing Pipeline Is Cooling: What the Latest Starts, Permits, and Completions Are Really Saying

 

The Housing Pipeline Is Cooling: What the Latest Starts, Permits, and Completions Are Really Saying

The latest housing construction numbers are sending a clear message: new activity is slowing, planning is steadier, and the delivery side of the market looks uneven depending on the type of housing. If you only look at one line item, it is easy to miss the story. But once you line up monthly, 3-month, and annual changes together, the housing pipeline comes into focus.

1. Starts are cooling again
   Housing starts (total) fell -4.6% month over month, -12.3% over the latest 3-month window, and -7.8% year over year. That combination matters.

• The monthly decline suggests a near-term pullback in new construction starts.

• The 3-month decline shows it is not just a one-month blip.

• The year-over-year drop confirms the broader downshift in momentum.

When starts weaken, it usually shows up later in completions and overall supply delivery, especially if the “under construction” pipeline is already shrinking.

2. Permits look steadier than starts
   Total permits were almost flat month over month (-0.2%), slightly down year over year (-1.1%), but up over the latest 3 months (+3.7%).

This is the key divergence in the report: planning is not collapsing, but execution is. In practical terms, builders may still be filing permits, but delaying the point where projects actually break ground. That pattern often shows up when financing costs, demand uncertainty, or risk management pressures remain high.

3. The pipeline is thinning
   Under construction (total) was down -10.1% year over year, with smaller declines on a monthly (-0.2%) and 3-month (-2.1%) basis.

A year-over-year decline of this size implies fewer projects are actively moving through the build stage than a year ago. That makes it harder for completions to improve meaningfully later unless starts re-accelerate.

4. Completions are uneven, and multifamily deliveries are the weak spot
   Total completions rose +1.1% month over month, but were down -4.7% over 3 months and down -15.3% year over year. So the month-to-month improvement does not change the broader direction.

The most striking figure is multifamily (5+ units) completions: -8.9% month over month, -17.0% over 3 months, and -41.9% year over year.

That is a major slowdown in new multifamily deliveries relative to last year, which matters for rent supply dynamics and for regions where multifamily construction has carried much of the post-pandemic building cycle.

5. Single-family is holding up better on the delivery side
   Single-family starts rose +5.4% month over month, but were still down -8.1% over 3 months and -7.8% year over year. In other words, there was a monthly bounce, but the trend remains soft.

Single-family completions were the bright spot: +6.0% month over month, +0.3% over 3 months, and +2.0% year over year.

That suggests builders are still finishing and delivering single-family homes at a relatively steady pace compared with last year, even if they are cautious about starting new projects.

6. A telling detail: permits are strong for 5+ units, but starts are weak
   Multifamily (5+ units) permits rose +0.4% month over month, +11.3% over 3 months, and +17.9% year over year. Yet multifamily (5+ units) starts fell -25.9% month over month, -22.7% over 3 months, and -10.8% year over year.

This gap is important. It implies the constraints are not about “interest in building” as much as “ability or willingness to begin construction now.” Timing, capital, and underwriting conditions can cause exactly this kind of permits-up, starts-down divergence.

What this means for the housing market narrative

• Supply delivery is not accelerating in a broad, consistent way. Total completions remain materially lower than last year.

• Multifamily supply relief may be fading faster than the permit data alone would suggest, because starts and completions are weak.

• Single-family delivery is more resilient, but the forward-looking trend in starts is still negative on a 3-month and annual basis.

• If under construction continues to fall year over year, completions can remain constrained even if demand stabilizes.

What to watch next

• Whether total starts rebound or continue to decline on a 3-month basis.

• Whether the permits-to-starts gap closes, especially for 5+ unit projects.

• Whether “under construction” stabilizes, because that is the bridge between permits/starts and completions.