February 2025 Home‐Price Trends: Tech Hubs Power Ahead, Florida Feels the Chill

 Released: April 29, 2025

The February 2025 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller release paints a market of contrasts. While long-term appreciation remains strongest in gateway metros, short-term momentum highlights a clear divide between resilient tech hubs and cooling Sunbelt areas. Here’s what you need to know:

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1. Monthly Snapshot: Who’s Gaining—and Who’s Not

• Tech Leaders Remain Unstoppable

  • San Francisco posted the largest single-month gain at +1.78%, followed closely by Seattle (+1.62%) and Los Angeles (+1.55%). High-income buyers and chronically low inventory continue to buoy these West Coast markets despite mortgage rates near 6.5%.

• Selective Strength Beyond the Coast

  • Chicago (+0.59%), Boston (+0.39%), and Denver (+0.61%) all delivered solid monthly increases, suggesting that economic centers with diversified job bases still attract homebuyers.

• Early Warning in Florida

  • Tampa (–0.34%) and Miami (–0.27%) were the only major metros to slip into negative territory, indicating possible seasonal oversupply or modest demand pullback as the peak moving season wanes.

• Composites & the National Picture

  • The 10-City Composite rose +0.81%, and the 20-City Composite gained +0.71%, both comfortably outpacing the U.S. National Index (+0.41%)—underscoring how the largest markets continue to drive aggregate momentum.

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2. Annual Gains: A Measure of Resilience

• Top Performers

  • New York (+7.70%), Chicago (+6.95%), and Cleveland (+6.58%) lead the year-over-year pack, a testament to strong local economies and persistent housing shortages.

• Broad Market Strength

  • Yearly appreciation in the 10-City (+5.18%) and 20-City (+4.50%) composites remains well above the National rate (+3.87%), highlighting that large-metro dynamics still dominate the broader national trend.

• Underperformers

  • Tampa (–1.46%) is the lone metro with negative annual growth, while Dallas (+0.89%) and Denver (+1.59%) trail far below the national average—signs that some Sunbelt markets may have overshot fundamentals in 2023 and are now facing corrections.

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3. What This Means Going Forward

1. Momentum Divergence: Monthly data are an early signal—tech-center metros maintain strong short-term gains, but Florida’s pullback warns of localized overextension.

2. Long-Run Resilience: Annual gains remain concentrated in gateway cities with constrained supply; however, even those rates will likely moderate as affordability pressures mount.

3. Composite Metrics as Barometers: The gap between composite and national indices suggests that while large metros still lead, smaller markets are driving decelerations that composites only partially mask.

As we progress through 2025, rising rates, shifting remote-work patterns, and changing affordability will continue to reshape this landscape. Monthly readings like these will be essential for spotting early inflection points—whether you’re an investor sizing up portfolio allocations, a policymaker monitoring affordability, or a prospective buyer gauging the right market and timing for your next move.