The latest release of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index reveals an increasingly nuanced picture of the U.S. housing market. While home prices continue to rise on an annual basis, the monthly and three-month average trends suggest a cooling or even flattening in momentum, especially in the Sunbelt and Western regions. Here's a closer look at what the data tells us.
📈 Northeast & Midwest Dominate Annual Gains
At the top of the list for year-over-year home price appreciation are:
- New York, NY: +7.75%
- Chicago, IL: +7.51%
- Boston, MA: +6.56%
- Cleveland, OH: +6.45%
- Detroit, MI: +5.73%
These cities are often seen as more stable, mature housing markets. What’s notable is that despite high mortgage rates, demand remains resilient in these metros—possibly driven by constrained supply, job stability, and relative affordability compared to overheated Sunbelt markets.
🌡️ Sunbelt Slows, Some Slip into Decline
At the bottom of the list, Tampa, FL posted a negative annual growth rate of -1.51%, the only major city with a year-over-year drop. Others like Dallas (-0.46% monthly), Atlanta (-0.16%), and Denver (-0.12%) are also seeing monthly declines and weak annual growth below 3%.
Just a couple of years ago, these markets were booming. Now, higher interest rates, inventory normalization, and affordability constraints are clearly cooling demand.
⚖️ Nationally Stable, But the Momentum is Waning
- U.S. National Index: +4.08% YoY | +0.06% MoM | -0.06% 3-Month MA
- 20-City Composite: +4.67% YoY | +0.07% MoM
- 10-City Composite: +5.30% YoY | +0.16% MoM
While national home prices continue to rise year-over-year, short-term momentum is softening. The 3-month moving average is negative, reflecting seasonal cooling or a broader plateau in prices.
🔍 Regional Highlights
- Los Angeles (+3.98%) and San Diego (+3.39%) show modest gains despite declining affordability.
- San Francisco has bounced back slightly (+3.00%) after a prolonged dip, but monthly changes remain volatile.
- Charlotte, NC and Miami, FL both post around +3.3% YoY but show recent weakness on a month-to-month basis.
🧠 What It All Means
The U.S. housing market is entering a transitional phase:
- Annual price growth is slowing, but not collapsing.
- Monthly changes are flat or negative in many markets.
- Affordability and interest rates are key headwinds.
- Inventory is slowly returning, which could ease pricing pressure.
In short, the post-pandemic housing boom is fading, but not reversing dramatically—yet. This is not 2008, but it’s also not 2021. We're entering a more balanced, nuanced market where location, affordability, and income growth will increasingly dictate outcomes.
📌 Final Thought:
If you’re a buyer, patience might pay off, especially in markets like Tampa, Dallas, or Phoenix. For sellers, timing and pricing strategy are more important than ever. The market is shifting beneath our feet—watch it closely.
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