Industrial Production Index (INDPRO)

library(zoo)

library(quantmod)

library(TTR)

library(forecast)

library(ggfortify)

library(psych)

library(pastecs)

library(xts)

getSymbols('INDPRO', src='FRED')

mydata=INDPRO

Annual<-annualReturn(mydata)*100

barplot(last(Annual, '20 year'), main='Annual Changes')

tail(Annual)

 yearly.returns

2012-12-01      2.3161888

2013-12-01      2.0991660

2014-12-01      3.1831880

2015-12-01     -3.2541923

2016-12-01      0.8255124

2017-07-01      1.6461802 (as of July 2017)

# Annual changes from 1998 to July 2017

the industrial production index increased by 1.65% in 2017 as of July 2017.

Diff_Year=diff(mydata,lag=12)

barplot(last(Diff_Year, '20 year'))

Industrial production index begins to increase positively from January 2017.

autoplot(last(Diff_Year, '20 year'))

 summary(last(Diff_Year, '20 year'))

     Index                INDPRO        

 Min.   :1998-01-01   Min.   :-15.8834  

 1st Qu.:2002-11-16   1st Qu.:  0.0678  

 Median :2007-10-01   Median :  2.2094  

 Mean   :2007-10-01   Mean   :  1.0568  

 3rd Qu.:2012-08-16   3rd Qu.:  3.3462  

 Max.   :2017-07-01   Max.   :  7.4406  

#forecasting

fit<-arima(last(Diff_Year, '5 year'), order=c(2,0,1))

accuracy(fit)

forecast(fit,50)

plot(forecast(fit,50))

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO