📉 U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Labor Market Still Resilient

📉 U.S. Jobless Claims Edge Lower, Labor Market Still Resilient

For the week ending August 9, 2025, initial unemployment claims fell to 224,000, down 3,000 from the prior week’s revised 227,000. The 4-week moving average rose slightly to 221,750, reflecting mild fluctuations but remaining in a historically healthy range of 200K–250K.

Continuing claims (those still receiving benefits) eased to 1.95 million for the week ending August 2, down 15,000 from the week before. While this is a modest improvement, continuing claims remain elevated—signaling that some workers are finding it harder to re-enter employment.

Why this matters:

• Initial claims remain low, suggesting layoffs are still limited.
• Elevated continuing claims hint at a cooling job market.
• If continuing claims climb toward 2.2M, the unemployment rate could approach 4.5%, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

In short, the U.S. labor market remains resilient but shows early signs of softening—a dynamic that policymakers, businesses, and job seekers should watch closely.

💬 What do you think—are we seeing the start of a gradual labor market slowdown, or just normal seasonal noise?

#Unemployment #LaborMarket #Economy #JoblessClaims #FederalReserve

U.S. Inflation Outlook – August to October 2025

📊 U.S. Inflation Outlook – August to October 2025

July’s Producer Price Index surged 0.9% MoM, the largest rise since January 2023, driven by higher trade margins, transportation costs, and food prices. This broad-based producer cost pressure is now set to ripple through to consumers.

3-Month Headline CPI Forecast (YoY):

• Aug 2025: ~3.25% – Gasoline price drop softens, but doesn’t erase, goods/services cost pressures.
• Sep 2025: ~3.30% – Continued pass-through from services PPI, with retail margins pushing prices higher.
• Oct 2025: ~3.35% – Mild upward drift unless energy prices retreat.

🔹 Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, suggesting limited room for aggressive rate cuts.
🔹 Sticky core inflation is likely to persist, driven by services and select goods categories.
🔹 Businesses should prepare for ongoing cost pressure into Q4, especially in logistics, food, and wholesale trade.

📈 Chart below shows the expected path for headline CPI through October 2025.

#CPI #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #BLS #Markets #InterestRates #SupplyChain