Forecasting the quarterly GDP growth rates

The forecasting model ARIMA (1,0,1) projects the annualized real GDP rates at 3% for next several quarters.

Median Number of Months on Sales Market for Newly Completed Homes and Home Price

The relationship between Median Number of Months on Sales Market for Newly Completed Homes and S&P/Case -Shiller U.S. National Home Price. It only takes 3.4 months to sell the new homes so that the home price has been increasing above 5%.

3.2

Exchange Rate vs. Real Exports

Exchange Rate vs. Real Exports of Goods and Service

Two variables have negative relationship: Exchange Rate and Real Exports. These two variables move opposite direction.

Global Price Index of All Commodities

Global Price Index of All Commodities is currently rising. This means the demand is back and the inflation is back as well. 

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PALLFNFINDEXM

Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index (PCEPI)

Technical analysis of monthly changes of PCE:

PCE from 1/2010

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI

Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on corporate income

Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on corporate income (B075RC1Q027SBEA)

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B075RC1Q027SBEA

Historical U.S. Real GDP Growth Rates - Bar Chart created by R

The following R codes can generate the chart below. The code will bring the real GDP data from St Louis Fed website directly.

library (quantmod)

getSymbols('GDPC1', src='FRED' )

mydata2<-annualReturn(GDPC1)*100

barplot(mydata2, main='Real GDP Growth', col='red', xlab='Year')